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Showing posts from June, 2026

Writing Code vs. Shipping Code: Productivity Effects Across Generations of AI Coding Tools

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The transformative power of LLMs in coding has been irrefutable, and it feels like we are living through a magical computing renaissance. On the socials, we hear impressive numbers of lines of code generated, features delivered, and bugs fixed. But, the macroeconomic indicators seem to be still lagging. Heck, if you talk with an engineering manager, you find that their product shipping dates haven't miraculously compressed by a factor of five, either. This paper just landed 10 days ago. It is from MIT and Wharton by Mert Demirer, Leon Musolff, and Liyuan Yang. Their study attempts to provide a structured economic model for evaluating actual productivity obtained from AI coding tools. By pairing confidential Microsoft telemetry with the public footprints of over 100,000 GitHub developers (tracking everything from open-source utilities to web app repositories), the authors show significant systemic friction downstream of AI code generation. Of course, I do my usual skeptical critic ...

A Case for Simulation-Driven Resilience in Agentic Data Systems

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As I mentioned in my previous post , I traveled to San Jose at the end of May for the ACM CAIS conference. On Day 0, I gave a very short talk at the Supporting our AI Overlords (SAO) workshop. This post is the promised summary of our paper, "A Case for Simulation-Driven Resilience in Agentic Data Systems" , joint work with Aleksey Charapko (University of New Hampshire) and Akshat Vig (MongoDB). Metastability is critical for building the next generation of distributed systems Our story starts with metastability. Metastability is the failure mode where the mechanisms built to protect the system (retries, queues, timeouts, load shedding) turn into amplifiers. Even after the trigger that caused the overload goes away, the system stays behind, churning through busy work, perpetually trying to catch up with the remnants of failed and behind-schedule tasks. It's a bit like missing some foundational math in high school. You spend so long backfilling the old gaps that you never ke...

ACM CAIS: Conference on AI and Agentic Systems

Last week, I traveled to San Jose to attend the ACM CAIS conference . On Day 0, I gave a short talk at the Supporting our AI Overlords (SAO) workshop . And yes, I promise to write a summary of our paper, " A Case for Simulation-Driven Resilience in Agent-First Data Systems " soon!  To start with an overall impression of the conference: much of the work presented felt exploratory and anecdotal. Since the compound AI space is still so new, many work seemed to share on-the-ground best practices that worked for them rather than principled results. Some talks really leaned into the "agent, act like a senior engineer and don't make mistakes" vibe. This was especially apparent in the "Agent Skills Workshop". I am not saying this is a bad thing, I learned some valuable lessons from that workshop, which I'll share below. CAIS defines the conference's scope broadly as "research on compound AI architectures, optimization, and deployment". Unfort...

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