Future of work

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A week or so ago, I told you I wanted to brainstorm about the future of work. Well, here it is for what it is worth.

Work wants to be free/liberated 

As liberties progress and more welfare is created, our expectations move higher up in Moslow's hierarchy. We are not satisfied with achieving bare survival by means of our work, and we want to thrive, flourish, and express ourselves via our work. We long to have more autonomy and freedom of choice and expression in our work. We like to pursue our own enterprises as part of our work.

We already see things moving away from the traditional industrial model with company loyalty, closer to this type of model. In software field, which is well off compared to others, people switch jobs frequently, and try to build their own brands/niches, and demand fulfillment from their work.

As these trends shape the future of work, we will see a growing gig economy that is served/supported by algorithmic platforms. Some primitive examples of this is used for Uber, DoorDash, TaskRabbit, Amazon and Ebay reseller markets, etc. Recently, we start to see better examples of this via Airbnb, and in particularly, with Airbnb experiences. Many people use Airbnb experiences to host cooking classes or art classes in Airbnb locations they rent.

These gig economy platforms task a single person rather than a team for a straightforward task (e.g., driving from point A to point B). In the future we will see platforms that perform team formation (algorithmically) to address complicated/composite projects.

Infrastructure for future of work

In this future of work, teams will form in an ad hoc manner and dissolve when the project is finished. To perform team forming algorithmically, it becomes important to investigate the search problem in temporal graphs. The algorithms should be able to sift through large scale temporal graphs to find the right person, not just for the job, but also for the team.

The systems support for this platform will come from blockchains and smartcontracts. Blockchains and smartcontracts will maintain the attestation/certification of work/contributions and payment/remittance/settlement of deals and commerce.

Future of law will steer closely to mathematical/logical specification of algorithmic contracts. With systems support for digital oracles for electronic checking/verification of real world, smartcontracts will gain more jurisdiction. Some digital oracles may also be implemented with algorithmically tasked third party inspectors. When the digital oracles find the smartcontract conditions are satisfied, payment/remittance/settlement of deals and commerce will execute automatically.

Predictions for future of work, workers, and technology

Future of work
  • gig work: ad-hoc teams of experts recruited by the algorithm
  • centered around: problem solving, empowering, mentoring, caregiving 
Future of workers
  • based on: apprenticeship with continuous training and certification
  • suited to: workers schedule, tastes, and skills
Future of technology
  • Software augments and shapes the physical: E-commerce got accepted, and it will next dominate and shape the physicality of commerce. With advances in 3D-printing software will get embedded in manifacturing and managing the physical devices
  • Advanced big-data processing and search/match algorithms will run the show for the future of work economy
  • Blockchains and smartcontracts will keep the tabs 

Things are a-changing against the grain of many decades of industrial capitalism where big companies rule, company loyalty and brand recognition is expected, and where big money attracts more money as money/capital dominates over work/labor/value. We will see companies being replaced by team or personal brands. We will see jobs replaced by projects, tasks, and problems. Career paths will explode and we will see many unique careers. Change is not easy, and it is not easy to accept and welcome change.

It may be that kids understand this better. I asked my 8 year old daughter, what she wants to be when she grows up, and she gave this a moment's thought and said: "I want to be a person that makes other people happy".

That quick but deep answer from my daughter was enlightening for me. It pretty much sums up the future of work. You won't need the labels for jobs. Rather you will find ways to fulfill your vision (such as making people happy) in a way you are skilled for. You will be doing meaningful work, because you will be defining the meaning and the work.

Comments

Jek B. Choo said…
Prof Murat, what is your take on the future of work following COVID-19 pandemic? Do you think it is still the same as you predicted?
August 11, 2020 at 10:06 PM
Tristan Slominski said…
I think it is telling that the Rick and Morty clip shows folks being recruited for a gig from (what look like their) steady jobs :)

I am curious about how you think gig work interacts with mentorship and apprenticeship.

No unions in our future to provide for collective well-being?
March 27, 2021 at 8:13 AM
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